Rust Belt Porn

I figure most people are familiar the pejorative usage of the term "Rust Belt". The image is one of deep economic malaise and over-dependence on anachronistic industry. These shrinking and decaying cities are stuck in a permanent recession. The stubborn stereotype:

Pittsburgh was devastated by the collapse of the domestic steel industry, but reinvented itself through education and medicine, and has done relatively well in recent years. Local unemployment is now at only 7.7 percent, well below the national average. However, there are limits to Pittsburgh’s recovery, and the city’s many college graduates often move away in search of work.

The current Pittsburgh renaissance deserves an asterisk, but not for the reasons stated. When anyone thinks of a Rust Belt city they include population decline. That's still the Pittsburgh bugaboo, the dreaded brain drain. This is the most persistent element of Rust Belt mythology. It's also the most erroneous.

Here is Youngstown at the bottom of another list (top US cities for business):

In late 2008, Youngstown was deemed by Forbes to be one of America's fastest-dying cities.

"It's not shocking," said Albert Sumell, assistant professor of economics at Youngstown State University. "Obviously, we haven't had good news in a while."

But, he says, the city is showing signs of life. While Youngstown is shrinking in size, it's embracing its smaller future, not just simply expecting it to come back. The city has set up a business incubator that is trying to encourage tech-oriented companies to get started there, and its downtown region is undergoing enough of a renaissance that The Economist magazine recently said it may have turned a corner.

"I think in some ways, our history is worse than our future," Sumell said. "I honestly believe our reputation, nationally, is worse than our potential."

Youngstown does have one Russell 2000 company in its metro area, Stoneridge Inc. (SRI 8.05, -0.10, -1.23%) , a maker of electrical components for cars, in suburban Warren.

But for now, the city is at least in the bottom third in all metrics, the bottom fourth in nine of 10 metrics and the bottom 10% of three. Its growth and job numbers are low, and the city struggled mightily to retain jobs during the past year; it was sixth worst in that metric.

The problem is in the methodology:

We also checked population growth since 2000 and measure job growth against population growth from the beginning of the decade to July 2008, the latest population data available.

In and of itself, population growth isn't a useful way of measuring health. A shrinking city such as Pittsburgh is still being punished for an exodus that happened 25 years ago. That out-migration still defines the city. Youngstown is similarly defined more by its past than the current state of affairs. The legacy costs are staggering. The ranking analysis also suggests the city is a victim of its own geography. The agglomeration economies of larger cities provide them with a comparative advantage.

Many of the metrics used strike me as outdated, a relic of the industrial economy. The booming population of Nigeria doesn't make it an economic power. Despite the loss of people, Pittsburgh is ranked 23rd on the list. So the supposed brain drain becomes the scar on an otherwise glowing review. A Rust Belt city can only go so far, so fast. But that is only a problem if the residents believe it to be true.

Youngstown, believe in Dream City. The measures you see above capture the past, not the future. Take it from someone who still hears the tired refrain, "At least we're not in Pittsburgh."